Predicting future cancer incidence with precision

A method has been proposed for calculating approximate confidence and prediction intervals both for the numbers of cases and for the age-adjusted incidence rates by assuming Poisson or extra-Poisson distribution of stratum-specific number of incident/mortality cases. The method can be applied to predict incidence/mortality cases based on a model with any functional form of linear predictor or link function.

The method has been programmed for a group of simple, linear and multiplicative age-period/cohort models, linear in time which are most often useful in the context of prediction. Thanks to their simplicity, the precision of the predictions produced by them is also satisfactory. The successful application of the proposed approach for most cancer sites in Finland showed that it can be used quite generally and the software created can be easily applied for other data sets.