Prediction (projection) of number of medical doctors in Slovenian health care system based on changes in the past

We analysed the factors that determine the number and the demographic structure of practicing medical doctors in Slovenia. Changes from the past can be used as a basis to predict future developments.

We have created a model that can serve as a basis for predicting future trends regarding medical doctors in Slovenia. We wish to use this model to predict the effects of interferences 'from without', such as regulating the number of enrolments to the medical faculties, modifying retirement legislation and offering incentives or imposing limitations regarding foreign staff hires. We also wish to create a model that will prove useful in the planning of other medical staff. In addition, we wish to bring attention to database flaws and the problems concerning data quality.

Data and methods

We observe a cohort of medical doctors from Slovenia included in the Healthcare Providers Database (Baza podatkov o izvajalcih – BPI) in the beginning of 2016.

The database includes basic demographics on medical doctors and milestone data on milestone events from a doctor's career. It also contains data on doctor employments from the 1950s. Based on employment data (employment start, employment type and, if appropriate, employment end), employment status of all doctors was determined for each year going back, from the end of 2015 and to 2000. This allowed us to rearrange the existing cross-sectional data into a timeline. For prediction, the methods used in demographic projections were adjusted.

Results

In the beginning of 2016, 6710 doctors were employed within the Slovenian healthcare system. The number of doctors employed in Slovenia is growing. The number of doctors employed increased by 42.5 % from 2000, i.e. by 2.4 % per year on average.

In case that inflow in the next 15 years will be as in the past 15 years, in 2030 the Slovenian health care system will have 8504 doctors (25% more than today). With the immediate abolition of the employment of foreigners and the re-activation of pensioners, in 2030, there will be 5% of doctors in the health care system more than today.